Malone’s Prediction Issued from the New York Times Fire
Escape
“The Times helpfully provides a
link to Malone's website, BinLaden's Plan.com, which claims, among other
things, that Osama bin Laden wanted George W. Bush to win the 2000 and 2004
elections. . . . The site goes on to claim that Mr. Malone
“has successfully predicted some of the major events of Bin Laden’s war” and is
now trying to warn of efforts by the terrorist network to goad the United
States to invade Pakistan and Iran. . .
. Malone called The Daily News three times, speaking in a calm monotone voice
about Al Qaeda, what he said was its attempt to influence the American
political process and get Republican
John McCain elected, and U.S. energy policy.”
(http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121562638725539779.html
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/09/third-man-climbs-times-building
http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2008/07/08/2008-07-08_times_climb__again_man_scales_papers_hea.html)
FORECAST
On July 9, 2008, I issued a nationally publicized warning about an imminent Al Qaeda plot to launch its greatest surge of terrorism against America since the 9/11 attack. Claiming to have developed a trends analysis that had accurately predicted the 9/11 plot, I provided actionable intelligence about an impending terrorist campaign that would be designed to influence the U.S. presidential election. In addition to making this forecast explicitly to a New York Daily News interviewer, I emailed and hand-delivered the warning to the New York Times and the New York Police Department.
· In this typed statement of intent for my “guerrilla press conference” I observed that the leading question facing Americans at that time was: “Why did Bin Laden launch October surprises on the eves of George W. Bush’s two presidential elections that had the effect of swaying tightly contested elections towards Bush’s favor?” I answered, “To elect an American Commander-in-Chief who would wage a seemingly imperial military crusade in response to Al Qaeda’s planned attacks.”
Most prominently, I plugged on national headline news my published book and website that contained the forewarning.
·
My book Bin Laden’s
Plan: The Project for the New Al Qaeda Century (Trafford Publishing,
2005 paperback edition, see pgs. 78-90, 129-136, 146-154, 166-168, 186)
examines three trends in Al Qaeda’s terrorist attacks on America, (1) plots to manipulate American presidential
contests in favor of hawkish candidates through election-eve terrorism, (2)
plots to provoke the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and Iran,
and (3) a post-9/11 targeting scheme that has focused on gradually escalating
attacks on American civilians in the Muslim world within the countries of U.S.
allies, while abstaining from attacks on the U.S. homeland.
·
At the time of this national news coverage in July
2008, my website Binladensplan.com identified Bin Laden’s October-Surprise
campaigns against America in 2000 and 2004, including terrorist attacks on
Americans overseas and top U.S. allies, as predictive models for Al Qaeda’s
2008 plot to rig the U.S. presidential election in favor of an easily provoked
warhawk.
o
Archived (via www.archive.org)
from the Binladensplan.com home page:
“Bin Laden's October surprises in 2000 and 2004 supported Bush's presidential
election victories.”
o
Archived (via www.archive.org)
from the essay “Another Election-Eve Surprise” that was linked from the
Binladensplan.com home page:
“Continuing Al Qaeda's successful hijacking of 21st century American
presidential elections, Al Qaeda will intervene on the eve of the 2008 election
to sway American voters to elect a candidate who promises to perpetuate the
neo-conservative Bush war policy. This intervention could take the form of a
major attack on American forces overseas (like the October 2000 bombing of the
USS COLE), or another shock-inspiring Bin Laden video that implicitly endorses
the Democratic candidate (like in October 2004), or a large-scale
terrorist attack on an American ally's homeland (like the October 2004
bombing of an American hotel in U.S.-allied Egypt that targeted Israelis),
such as the assassination of the British Prime Minister*. In all likelihood, Al Qaeda's third attempt
to hijack an American presidential election will be novel, shocking, and
intended to incite American voters to elect John McCain . . . Helping to craft
the image of a modern Roman Empire that menaces humanity, Al Qaeda will then be
poised to win the military conflict of its global insurgency on the foundations
of a decisive ideological victory.”
– Note: The essay “Another Election-Eve Surprise” was an addendum to the book Bin
Laden’s Plan (Trafford, 2005). The
italicized text in this quotation has been added as a contextual explanation
for people who have not read the free e-book.
My national guerrilla press conference included public
display of this warning’s visual representation, hung from the New York Times
headquarters adjacent to the company logo on the front of the building. Depicting Osama bin Laden holding President
Bush by a puppeteer’s wand, this image reflects the Al Qaeda chief’s willful
role in rigging the 2000 and 2004 U.S. elections in favor of Bush, and Al
Qaeda’s aspiration to rig the 2008 election in favor of Bush’s ideological
successor, John McCain.
In particular, my trends analysis offered previously
undisclosed intelligence about this new Al Qaeda campaign, accurately
forecasting that the 2008 attacks would:
·
Begin imminently and climax during the influential
election-eve weeks in September-October,
·
Mark Al Qaeda’s greatest post-9/11 surge of terrorism
against America,
·
Involve a wave of catastrophic terrorism on highly
symbolic U.S. targets abroad, possibly in strategically crucial, U.S.-allied
Muslim nations where Al Qaeda is most heavily infiltrated, and
·
Sway a closely contested U.S. presidential election in
favor of John McCain without violating Al Qaeda’s ban on post-9/11 terrorist
attacks inside the U.S. homeland**.
With this information provided by the “Bin Laden’s Plan Trends Analysis of
Major Al Qaeda Plots Against America”, I pinpointed the approximate timing and
locations targeted by this major Al Qaeda plot.
ORIGIN
Although my trends analysis considers multiple competing factors in order to make a projection, certain dominating factors led me to determine these times and targets for Al Qaeda’s 2008 election plot. The timing was most clearly foreshadowed by Al Qaeda’s consistent habit of attempting to influence American national elections (in October 2000, October 2002, October 2004, and September 2006) with a surge of terrorist threats or attacks during the final decisive weeks before Voting Day. The targets of the 2008 plot were indicated primarily by three operational requirements.
(1)
IMPACT ON AMERICANS: The
need to generate a major U.S. national security crisis that would powerfully
impact voter decisions indicated that the terrorist attacks would likely target
highly symbolic American targets abroad and occur in a strategically crucial
location for the superpower, such as the world’s oil heartland (the Arabian
Peninsula) or the most precipitous nuclear stand-off (Pakistan-India).
(2)
FACILITY OF EXECUTION:
The need to ensure operational success by the election-eve deadline
indicated that the attacks would likely be launched in areas where Al Qaeda was
most heavily infiltrated (and immune to heightened security precautions).
(3) DEPICTING DEFENSIVE JIHAD: The need to portray a gradually mounting defensive war arising from the domineering military and economic presence of American imperialism in Muslim lands indicated that the attacks would likely occur inside the Muslim world within the country of a preeminent U.S. ally in the 9/11 War.
In particular, my trends analysis identified Al Qaeda’s
previous October-Surprise campaign for the 2004 U.S. presidential election
(painstakingly detailed in my published book Bin Laden’s Plan (Trafford,
2005)) as a model for the 2008 plot.
For example, this model slated the 2008 plot to begin in July with a
smaller terrorist attack on a hard U.S. target in the Muslim world within a
pivotal U.S. ally, mirroring the Al
Qaeda attacks on the U.S. and Israeli embassies inside U.S.-allied Uzbekistan
in July 2004. Conducted within the most
crucial site for U.S. bases bordering the war zone in Afghanistan, this attack
against the most preeminent American symbol in the country marked the first
major Al Qaeda terrorist attack on an official U.S. target since 9/11. The 2004 October-Surprise model also
projected the 2008 plot to continue in the September-October months before the
election with the worst terrorist attack since 9/11 and a major terrorist
attack on a U.S. target in the Muslim world within a preeminent U.S. ally. In September 2004, Al Qaeda’s Beslan school
massacre marked the worst terrorist attack since 9/11, killing hundreds of
school children. Weeks later in October
2004, Al Qaeda’s bombing targeting Israeli tourists in a U.S. hotel within the
country of America’s most crucial Muslim ally in the Middle East, Egypt, marked
only the third major terrorist attack on the superpower since 9/11. As the first major terrorist attack
targeting America inside Egypt, this hotel bombing signified the most striking
escalation of Al Qaeda terrorism against America since 9/11.
This 2004 October
Surprise coupled with Bin Laden’s only seemingly authentic video recording
since 2001, a “Halloween” media release in which he finally claimed explicit
responsibility for ordering the 9/11 attack.
Implicitly endorsing President Bush’s Democratic challenger by
condemning the Bush war doctrine and promising future 9/11’s if America
continued this policy, Bin Laden’s most famous video message issued three days
before the election was widely credited as a substantial factor in swinging a
closely contested election in favor of Bush.
Along with Bin Laden’s conspicuous attempt to terrorize Americans into
supporting a warhawk on the eve of the 2004 presidential election, my trends
analysis also highlighted his October surprise in 2000 (painstakingly
detailed in my published book Bin Laden’s Plan (Trafford, 2005)). Three weeks before Americans decided between
the hawkish Bush team and the dovish Al Gore, Bin Laden decided to launch only
his second overt terrorist attack on America, the bombing of the USS COLE. Crippling a preeminent U.S. target at moor
in the Arabian Peninsula (in Yemen), this major escalation of Al Qaeda’s war on
America need only have swayed a crucial faction of American voters in order to
rig the election in favor of the Bush/Cheney ticket. As clearly highlighted by my trends analysis, Al Qaeda’s
October-Surprise campaigns in 2000 and 2004
accurately projected the syndicate’s 2008 plot to rig the U.S. election.
FULFILLMENT
Beginning minutes after I issued this dire warning from
the New York Times fire escape on July 9th, 2008, Al Qaeda began the
campaign I had anticipated by launching its first major strike on a U.S.
civilian target abroad since the Jordan bombings in November 2005. As a preamble to a September-October plot
for large-scale attacks against American targets in Yemen, Pakistan and India,
Al Qaeda’s armed assault on the U.S. consulate in Istanbul signaled the next
stage of its incrementally increasing terrorism against American civilians in
the Muslim world. Collectively, Al
Qaeda’s plots for these four major attacks constituted a precise fulfillment of
my forecast about Al Qaeda’s 2008
October-Surprise campaign. In
particular, following my nationally publicized warning on July 9th,
this 2008 terrorist campaign:
·
Began imminently and climaxed during the influential
election-eve weeks in September-October,
·
Marked Al Qaeda’s greatest post-9/11 surge of terrorism
against America, including:
o
Three major terrorist attacks against America within a
three-month period that collectively murdered (along with the delayed fourth
attack in Mumbai that was originally scheduled for September 30-October 2) over
two hundred civilians in a bid to kill five thousand, a campaign that included
a partially aborted plot for the largest terrorist attack in world history
inside India’s “New York City” (Mumbai) that would have targeted the U.S.
consulate, singled-out American civilians and demolished two hotel towers where
American tourists resided,
·
Involved a wave of catastrophic terrorism on highly
symbolic U.S. targets abroad in strategically crucial, U.S.-allied Muslim
nations where Al Qaeda is most heavily infiltrated, attacks that included:
o
A commando raid on the U.S. consulate in Istanbul (on the
pivotal border between Europe and the Muslim world), a brazen commando raid on
the U.S. embassy in Yemen (inside the Arabian Peninsula, the world’s oil
heartland), a bombing of an American hotel that nearly assassinated the
U.S.-backed Pakistani government, and a commando raid targeting American
tourists and Jewish people in India’s “New York City” that almost ignited a war
between the U.S-allied nuclear rivals India and Pakistan,
· Nearly succeeded in swaying a closely contested U.S. presidential election in favor of John McCain without violating Al Qaeda’s ban on post-9/11 terrorist attacks inside the U.S. homeland.
Following this Al Qaeda terrorist campaign in September 2008, the world's top counterterrorism experts echoed my warning about the syndicate’s plot to influence the election in favor of a warhawk (i). Had Al Qaeda succeeded in this scheme, its October-Surprise campaign would have caused a global security crisis that reframed the imminent American presidential election as a referendum on John McCain's most popular issues, national security and terrorism. However, operational failures in this terrorist plot coupled with the U.S. economic crisis, which diminished support for another Republican administration, to ensure that Al Qaeda’s preferred presidential candidate was not elected.
RATIONALE FOR PUBLICIZING PREDICTION
My purpose for publicizing this warning about Al Qaeda’s election plot was to
help prevent the attacks and foster public awareness of the Bin Laden
threat. By providing actionable
intelligence that was resoundingly heard above the daily clamor of terrorist
threat warnings, I attempted to help in arresting the terrorist cell executing
the operation or else prompt a heightened alert for these limited times and
targets that would force a postponement of the attack. Considering the importance of the
election-eve deadline to the plot’s success, simply delaying attacks could
thwart the scheme to influence American voters. As it turned out, the heightened alert status for Mumbai in
September 2008, largely prompted by CIA warnings, postponed the plot’s
climactic attack in Mumbai.
Aside from thwarting the attacks, preventing the manipulation of voters figured
centrally in my counterterrorism initiative.
The election plot primarily posed a threat because of the American
voter's ignorance of Al Qaeda’s nature that allowed Bin Laden’s inner circle to
intervene successfully in American presidential elections and choose a U.S.
commander-in-chief who best suits the syndicate’s war strategy. If the American public were to be
effectively informed about the psychological operation to manipulate their vote
beforehand, the bid to rig the election would not succeed. Even if public-awareness efforts fail and
the terrorist attacks do occur, demonstration of the veracity of this trends
analysis will help direct Americans to support the effective counterterrorism policy advocated at Binladensplan.com.
Although the 2008 election plot failed, the fact that Al Qaeda has tried in
this manner to sway the past five U.S. national elections indicates that
counterterrorism efforts to thwart October Surprises still bear contemporary
relevance. The likelihood of a repeat
of these Al Qaeda psychological operations in 2010 and 2012 mandates a
continuation of this public awareness campaign. Beyond its importance to understanding Al Qaeda’s overarching
strategy and future plans, the election plot tactic should be scrutinized in
light of the fact that the Palestinian group HAMAS imitated this judo terrorism
tactic to support the 2009 election of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu, President Bush's neo-conservative replacement in the U.S.-Israeli
alliance against Islamic extremism.
CORRELATED WARNINGS
The high probability that Al Qaeda would pursue this 2008 election plot indicated that it might have possibly pursued correlated schemes in the event of its failure. Although these prospective plots did not appear nearly as likely as the election plot, they still suggested a need for heightened security alerts at particular targets during certain times. Following the inability of Al Qaeda’s election plot to sway the election of President Bush’s ideological successor, John McCain, the prospect of a diplomatically astute American administration foreshadowed possible attempts by Al Qaeda to provoke Bush into military aggression during his final months in office. At the end of 2008, I issued two warnings about a heightened possibility of Al Qaeda launching particularly instigative attacks on civilian targets in the U.S. homeland for this purpose. These terrorism advisories cited Al Qaeda plots to attack major shopping malls during Christmas Eve and Times Square during New Years Eve. Like my most vociferous warning about the likelier election plot, both of these cautionary alerts were precisely echoed by classified U.S. intelligence notices to the nation’s law enforcement personnel. It is possible that heightened security deterred these holiday terrorist operations.
Al Qaeda’s continued efforts to attack America requires that the highly accurate trends analysis described at Binladensplan.com be utilized in the future to neutralize this terrorism against the United States. See our recommended strategy to defeat Al Qaeda for a detailed description of the trends analysis’ projection of Al Qaeda October-Surprise plots in 2010 and 2012.
_________________________
* Nearly two months after I publicized this prediction about a possible Al Qaeda plot to assassinate the British Prime Minister during the eve of the 2008 U.S. presidential election, such a plot was disclosed by the British Secret Service.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/29/2349676.htm?section=justin
In fulfillment of the 2008 forecast by my trends analysis of major Al Qaeda
plots against the United States, this assassination plot appears to have
occurred in conjunction with known Al Qaeda plots for large-scale terrorist
attacks on American targets overseas (in Yemen, Pakistan and India) during the
weeks before the 2008 U.S. presidential election.
** The onset of the
U.S. economic meltdown in late September 2008 profoundly impacted the
presidential race in favor of Barack Obama.
At that point, Obama’s substantial gains in a campaign that had
previously been closely contested altered the parameters of Al Qaeda’s election
plot. Instead of needing to sway a tiny
fraction of American voters, Al Qaeda was then presented with the much more
difficult challenge of swaying a large fraction of the electorate. Burdened with this new mandate, Al Qaeda’s
large-scale attacks on Americans abroad no longer would constitute an effective
October Surprise. Only a 9/11 sequel on
the American homeland might have delivered the required votes to swing the
election in favor of John McCain.
Although this would violate Al Qaeda’s ban on post-9/11 terrorist
attacks inside the U.S. homeland, and possibly backfire by demonstrating the
failure of the Bush war policy to combat Al Qaeda, these new parameters for an
October Surprise offered Bin Laden’s syndicate the only hope of repeating its
successful strategy for intervening on the eve of U.S. national elections to
favor warhawk candidates. Based on the
modified conditions of the U.S. presidential contest resulting from the
economic crisis, I revised my warning about Al Qaeda’s October-Surprise plot to
include the possibility of a 9/11 sequel on the U.S. homeland. Following the election of a U.S. president
that Al Qaeda is committed to discrediting, a 9/11-sequel for its October
Surprise operations has become the dominant scenario forecasted by my trends
analysis.
(i)
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/october-surpr-1.html
http://www.nysun.com/foreign/spies-warn-that-al-qaeda-aims-for-october-surprise/86326/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/3092548/US-steps-up-Pakistan-raids-to-thwart-al-Qaeda-October-surprise-plot.html
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/10/21/if_bin_laden_reemerges_mccain_stands_to_gain/
http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/2008/10/02/why-osama-bin-laden-and-al-qaeda-might-try-to-affect-the-election-between-barack-obama-and-john-mccain.html
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/10/21/2008-10-21_osama_bin_laden_wants_a_vote_so_beware_a-2.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/opinion/26kristof.html
http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/op-eds/beware-october-surprise